Electric Truck Market Size, Share & Demand Forecast to 2030 (2024)

Market Overview

The electric truck market sales volume was 86,799 units in 2022, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 38.2% during 2022–2030, to reach 1,154,996 units by 2030.

The conventional fuel-based trucks have high operating and maintenance cost, as compared to the EV trucks. Unlike conventional ones, electric models do not require oil changes, spark plug replacements, fuel filters, and emission checks, resulting in substantial savings in overall component costs. With such vehicles requiring less maintenance than their conventional counterparts, the vehicle uptime for the former increases significantly, which should benefit fleet owners.

Like electric buses, such trucks also employ regenerative braking systems, which help in achieving significant reduction in wear and tear of brakes. The fuel costs, coupled with repair and maintenance costs, constitute around 35% of the total operating cost in case of a diesel truck.

Such costs can be significantly reduced by replacing diesel trucks with the electric variants, which can significantly improve the benefit-to-cost ratio for fleet owners. Therefore, it can be said that the low operating and maintenance cost of such trucks is expected to drive the growth of the market.

Moreover, a significant share of global sales was from China in 2022, and it is expected that this dominance would persist throughout the projection period. Due to the existence of corporations like, BYD Auto Co. Ltd., Dongfeng Motor Corporation, Daimler AG, and FAW Group Co., Ltd., the area will hold a dominant share during the forecast period.

Additionally, the country has the largest acceptance of electric trucks due to China's central government's 2015 elimination of maximum weight limits on truck and subsidies on LCVs. Due to the advanced model selection, constant advancements in battery performance, and declining battery prices, it is projected that the sales of electric trucks in China would rise.

Stringent Emissions Targets and Government Regulations Drives Market

The low operating and maintenance cost of a zero/low-emission truck may help to achieve cost parity as compared to its conventional counterparts. But the government regulations will help the market grow much faster. Major regulatory measures are stringent emissions norms for the reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air; and diesel bans in various urban areas across the world, with cities, such as Paris, Madrid, and Mexico City already started announcing diesel bans.

With France and the U.K. having already announced bans on the fossil-fuel vehicle sales starting from 2040, the major players, under this direct regulatory pressure, are shifting from the conventional diesel trucks to the electric ones.

Also, some countries, including Norway and India, are striving to meet their EV penetration targets in an attempt to fulfil their commitment to reduce CO2 emissions under the Paris Agreement. The diesel bans and other emission regulations are forcing manufacturers to include zero/low-emission trucks in their product offerings, thereby driving the development of the market.

Battery Electric Trucks Segment Accounted For Largest Share

The BEV category will grow at the higher CAGR, of around 40% in the forecast period. This is due to governments’ support in the form of financial incentives for the purchase and development of these vehicles, and improvements in technology. Government incentives for such trucks have been announced in a few countries, with programs and schemes tailor-made for supporting related freight equipment and infrastructure.

Commercial vehicles are an integral part of the transport industry. In order to cut down the emissions from diesel-based trucks used by fleet operators, the governments have announced a ban on the use of diesel-based vehicles. The ban will come into effect in some countries as early as 2030.

Besides, ongoing R&D for such vehicles by commercial vehicle manufacturers, in collaboration with their battery and motor technology partners toward improving energy density and increasing source life, coupled with the reduction in prices, is also driving the growth of the category.

Government Support Through Incentives

In order to further boost the adoption of electric trucks, governments across the world have started announcing financial incentives on the purchase of these vehicles. For instance, in June 2018, the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) of Germany announced a subsidy policy for battery-powered and fuel cell-powered models used for goods transportation.

The eligible trucks must weigh at least 7.5 tons. Under this subsidy scheme, subsidies up to $13,500 and $45,300 (€12,000 and €40,000) will be offered for models weighing up to 12 tons and over 12 tons, respectively. Also, these grants are capped at $566,376 (€ 500,000) per company.

In December 2017, a rebate program was introduced by the administration of Ontario (Canada) for purchasing these automobiles. Under this program, rebates of up to 60% of incremental cost of a truck, capped at $56,820 (C$75,000), will be offered per vehicle.

Also, in California (U.S.), the government offers vouchers and funds for the purchase and deployment of such vehicles. A minimum 20% of these funds will be invested toward commercial deployment of trucks and related equipment.

HDT Category is Expected to Hold Major Share

HDT category is anticipated to rise at the faster rate over the forecast period, at 44% CAGR. The rapidly expanding global freight transport demand as well as the enormous economic expansion in China and India are the main causes of growth.

Moreover, the HDT category is expanding significantly in developed economies, such as the U.S. and European countries, which can be attributed to fleet owners' rising demand for long-haul HDTs that use alternative fuels. Additionally, in order to meet the growing the demand and maximize their benefits from government financial incentive programs, companies are continuing the production of HDTs in large numbers.

Declining Battery Price

In such trucks, the battery pack is one of the primary components and forms a significant share of the overall drivetrain cost, and considerably influences the selling price of the vehicle. Such packs in EVs include electrochemical cells within casing, and are integrated with management systems.

The price of these packs is mainly affected by the chemistry used in electrochemical cells, as chemistry determines a range of performance-determining parameters, such as energy-to-weight ratio, lifetime, and charging time. The batteries used in electric trucks are similar to the ones used in passenger cars, with the number of cells being greater in the former.

Technological advancements in battery development over the past decade helped to bring down the price of these battery packs. Also, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is on the rise. However, battery manufacturing industry is growing much faster than the demand. As a result, the battery prices have fallen drastically over the years. The prices will decline faster in the coming years, owing to the rise in research and development (R&D) expenditures by the major manufacturers across the world.

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China Accounted for Largest Share in APAC

APAC held the significant share in the market in 2022. China is the largest market for electric trucks in the region. The demand for the automobiles in China is strongly driven by favorable government initiatives, national alternative-fuel-vehicle replacement sales targets, and municipal air quality targets.

The electric truck market in other regions is still in its developmental phase and depends largely on policies of the government. The comparatively higher upfront costs, underdeveloped value chain, and presence of few OEMs have limited the sales in these regions. However, the manufacturers are heavily investing on the development of electric trucks, which will boost the market growth in the future.

Moreover, the market in North America will grow at a considerable rate during the forecast period, as the fleet owners are increasingly including battery-powered trucks in their fleets to level with the accelerating demand for freight transport. Incentive schemes offered by national governments in the region are also driving the industry growth to a great extent. The market growth is also driven by the stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations to meet CO2 emission and fuel economy standards.

The region is home to some of the main market players in the world, including Tesla Inc. and Nikola Motor Company. In December 2022, Elon Musk stated that Pepsi will receive the first electric trucks and that Tesla will begin the Tesla Semi production. Tesla Semi's has 500-mile range and efficiency of under 2 kWh per mile have the potential to significantly alter the land-based freight transportation business. With per kWh costing $0.20, the cost of operation per mile is $0.40. That is around half of what a diesel truck would cost to operate.

Similarly, in March 2022, the manufacturing of Nikola Motor Company's first battery-powered semitruck has started. With an estimated range of roughly 350 miles, the truck is designed for shorter distances. Between 300 and 500 of the trucks will be delivered by Nikola, with production increasing to a higher level in 2023. With such factors the market of U.S. held a significant share of the global market in 2022.

Top Electric Truck Manufacturers Are:

• Hino Motors Ltd.
• Daimler AG
• Volvo Group
• BYD Company Limited
• Dongfeng Motor Corporation
• Iveco S.p.A.
• Isuzu Motors Limited
• Nikola Motor Company
• Workhorse Group Incorporated
• Cummins Inc.
• E-Force One AG

Market Size Breakdown by Segment

The study uncovers the biggest trends and opportunities in the market, along with offering segmentation analysis at the granular level for the period 2017 to 2030.

Based on Propulsion

• BEV
• HEV
• PHEV
• FCEV

Based on Vehicle Type

• LDT
• MDT
• HDT

Based on Range

• 0–150 Miles
• 151–250 Miles
• 251–500 Miles
• Above 500 Miles

Based on Application

• Logistics
• Municipal
• Others

Geographical Analysis

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
• Europe
  • Germany
  • U.K
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
• Asia-Pacific
  • China
  • Japan
  • South Korea
• Rest of the World
  • U.A.E.
  • Brazil