U.S. Electric Truck Market Growth Forecast Report, 2030 (2024)

Market Overview

The U.S. electric truck market size was $308.9 million in 2021, and it is expected to advance at an exponential CAGR of 54.0% during 2021–2030, primarily due to the increasing number of government measures to promote e-mobility and strict emission standards placed on fossil-fuel-powered commercial vehicles.

The initiatives taken by the government for the promotion of e-mobility, such as the emission regulations and financial incentives on the purchase of electric vehicles, are essentially expected to drive the growth of the industry. Furthermore, the rise in the demand for electric trucks from the logistics industry, as well as the development of the self-driving technology, is expected to present significant growth opportunities for electric truck manufacturers.

As more governments in the country follow the trend and set clear targets to phase out fossil fuels, the uncertainty in the market will reduce, and the adoption of more trucks in businesses will support the transition.

For instance, New York City relaunched its Clean Trucks Program in June 2020, which provides funding to incentivize the transition from diesel to electric models. The goal is to reach 4,000 EVs by 2025 from 2,100 EVs in 2020. This program will be instrumental in helping the city achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

Furthermore, as the cost of fuel continues to rise, the EV sector is expected to boom in the future years. The EPA and NHTSA have implemented the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule from 2021 to 2026 in the U.S. The proposal has set corporate average fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards for passenger and light vehicles. However, over the projection period, the electric truck market growth is likely to be hampered by the high cost and lack of charging infrastructure.

In addition, the COVID-19 infection has affected the manufacturing and automotive industries. The crisis has prompted many industry stakeholders to re-examine and prepare for the auto industry's medium- and long-term growth, by accelerating the transformation and upgrade of the industry. However, the ripple effects of the pandemic were visible in the crude prices, which stooped historically low, in the negatives. Since the rising crude prices are a major driver for the adoption of EVs, this came as a big setback for EV OEMs and component manufacturers and marketing companies, thus contracting the EV industry in the U.S.

Opportunity: Race to Replace Human Drivers and Make Roads Even Safer

• The recent trend of autonomous trucks will have a significant impact on the industry. The self-driving technology will increase the electric truck demand in the long run due to its ease of use, self-driving mode, and better road safety prospects owing to the elimination of human error. For instance, in the U.S., there are more than 1,400 autonomous vehicles and more than 80 companies that are currently testing them.

Ample Market Opportunities Generated by Logistics Industry

The logistics industry dominated the sale of such automobiles in the country with more than 80% revenue contribution in 2021. The expanding logistics footprint and notable growth in e-commerce, retail, and third-party logistics are propelling the purchases of such eco-friendly commercial vehicles in the country. Moreover, with the increasing demand for faster and more-convenient deliveries at the doorstep, the requirement for efficient supply chains for logistics services is rising.

Light-Duty Trucks Are Most Popular

Among the various vehicle types, light-duty trucks (LDTs) are being used the most. This can be attributed to the high demand for and adoption of pickup trucks in the country. The demand for these LDTs is driven by several industries to use them in their operations. Resultingly, in 2021, LDTs accounted for more than 90% of the total commercial vehicle sales in the country. They offer a huge opportunity to the key players for the introduction of new electric variants, to help fleet owners cut down overall operational costs.

Battery Electric Vehicle Sales To Pick Up Fastest in Coming Years

Battery electric variants are used the most, and that’s why they are projected to be the fastest-growing type of electric truck during the forecast period. This can be majorly ascribed to the lowering battery cost, improvements in the battery technology, and the government’s support in the form of financial incentives for the development and purchase of these vehicles. According to a survey, there was an annual decline of 16% in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2020, and the average cost was $144/kWh in 2020.

California Is Highest Revenue Contributor to Electric Truck OEMs in U.S.

Geographically, California is expected to lead the electric truck market of the U.S. and exhibit significant growth throughout the forecast period. The dominance of the state on the industry is attributed to the immense support of the government in the form of policy formulation and incentive plans that encourage the adoption of EVs in the state.

For instance, in June 2020, California approved new rules that require a certain percentage of work truck sales each year to be of zero-emission vehicles. By the time the rules are fully implemented in 2035, the board estimates at least 15% of the 1.2 million trucks on the road to be running on electricity, thereby reflecting a massive increase in the demand for e-trucks.

Moreover, California's expanding zero-emission vehicle policy continues to set an example for the country, with Governor Gavin Newsom praising the state for selling more than 1 million plug-in electric cars, pickup trucks, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and motorcycles in 2021. According to new data, in February 2022, California accounts for almost 40% of all zero-emission automobiles in the country, despite having just 10% of the country's cars.

Electric Truck Manufacturers Strategizing to Widen Their Customer Base

The industry is consolidated with the presence of major players. The major trend being observed in the industry is of product launches and customer acquisitions, with companies seeking ways to stay ahead of their competitors. For Instance,

• In December 2021, Heniff Transportation Systems LLC entered into an agreement to purchase 10 Nikola Tre BEV trucks from Thompson Truck Centers, a member of the Nikola Corporation sales and service dealer network. The agreement between Heniff Transportation and Thompson Truck Centers is a fleet-as-a-service model, where Thompson will provide the sales, service, maintenance, and the energy infrastructure required to operate the Nikola Tre BEV trucks. The deliveries are expected to commence in the first half of 2022.
• In October 2021, BYD Co. Ltd. unveiled its zero-emission refuse truck, 6R Class 6, in the U.S. This truck is capable of working an entire shift without recharging. In addition, it has over 200 kWh of battery capacity, and it is capable of 120kW DC CCS1 charging.
• In September 2021, Orange EV announced that its new intermodal terminal trucks will be available by Q3 2022 to meet the increasing cargo handling and lifting demands of port and intermodal rail operations.

Key Electric Truck Manufacturers in U.S.:

• Chanje Energy Inc.
• Orange EV
• Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus Corp.
• Nikola Motor Company
• Tesla Inc.
• Ford Motor Company
• General Motors Company
• Workhorse Group Inc.
• BYD Co. Ltd.
• Stellantis N.V.

Market Size Breakdown by Segments

The U.S. electric truck market report offers comprehensive market segmentation analysis along with market estimation for the period 2014-2030.

By Vehicle Type

• Light-Duty Truck (LDT)
• Medium-Duty Truck (MDT)
• Heavy-Duty Truck (HDT)

By Propulsion

• Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
• Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
• Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV)

By Range

• 0–150 Miles
• 151–250 Miles
• 251–500 Miles
• >500 Miles

By Capacity

• <100 kWh
• 100–200 kWh
• 201–300 kWh
• >300 kWh

ByApplication

• Logistics
• Municipal

Geographical Analysis

• California
• New York
• Florida
• Washington
• Texas
• New Jersey